December 23, 2009

Takeaways - Pittsburgh v. Green Bay

Usually a thrilling, last-second 37-36 road defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champions is filed under the "Good Loss" column. However, in this case, it brings to light three huge concerns that, either singularly or in combination, will likely preclude the Packers from making a serious championship run this season. At the same time, there are a few potential blips that may not correspond to the rest of the season for Green Bay. Here's a look at both-

3 Causes for Concern

1. Secondary Depth

When Al Harris' knee blew out against San Francisco a few weeks ago, the immediate concern was not whether or not Tramon Williams could replace him (debatable thus far), but how the Packers would cope with career special teamer and pass coverage doormat Jarrett Bush playing a prominent role in nickel defense. In the past few weeks, Dom Capers has done a masterful job of hiding Bush, only allowing him to get burnt a few times, and blitzing frequently. Eventually, though, someone was going to victimize him, and Big Ben was all too happy to oblige, ripping Bush apart time after time as the Steelers completely abandoned the run. Recently-acquired Josh Bell, in limited action, was the victim of Roethlisberger's perfect final pass, in addition to an illegal contact penalty on the final drive, but I'd still trust him over Bush at this point.

2. Mason Crosby

It's tough to give up on a guy when there's nothing else out there in the way of capable replacements, but missing inside 40 yards is simply unacceptable. And when you do it in several consecutive games...

Any terrible kicker on the NFL fringe should still be able to hit those. If he blows one more within his range, you have to assume the Packers will at least try out some other kickers. I love Crosby's talent, but at some point, as with any other position, you have to ask yourself- when do we stop trusting a talented player who isn't getting the job done?

3. Coaching

Once again, throughout the first half, McCarthy displayed a terrible sense of offensive rhythm, settling for a FG (which Crosby promptly shanked) in a potential touchdown situation, going 3-and-out three times, and bungling clock management on the last drive of the half, which could have resulted in another FG (which would have been missed by Crosby). I do give McCarthy credit for righting the ship and giving up on the run when it clearly wasn't working. Watching Rodgers spread the ball around to every one of his WRs in big spots (JMF, Jordy, Jones all had big catches) was promising, and keeping opposing defenses honest will keep the Packers in any game in the next few games and (hopefully) the postseason. However, on the other side of the ball, for the first time, I was seriously concerned about Dom Capers' in-game adjustments. Dropping Hawk in nickel until the end of the game was a huge mistake. Not bringing any pressure (Jarius Wynn and Brady Poppinga were pass-rushing on the last play), consequently putting Bush in a position where he could continue to get destroyed, was destined for failure. Not bringing any delayed blitzes against a QB who is notorious for squirming out of arm tackles- bad oversight. Obviously the players put themselves in the position they were left in- Chillar had his worst game in coverage I can remember, Bush and Hawk were awful, Bell was out of position on the last pass, Bigby seems to be a liability as over-the-top help - but it's the defensive coordinator's job to cover up his team's weaknesses. For one week, Capers did the opposite, and I'm not sure how he'll be able to cover it up in the future.

There may be a few reasons to believe this one game may have been what McCarthy calls it- simply an outlier on what has been an excellent "14-game body of work".

3 Reasons for Hope

1. Roethlisberger's Elusiveness

Look at the contending QBs in the NFC and compare them to why Roethlisberger was so successful, and you may come to a more optimistic conclusion (if such a thing exists) that the 503 yard clinic Big Ben put on was more of an exception than what we can expect. Obviously, a certain #4 doesn't take many sacks for the Vikes, but, as Packer fans are all too aware, his elusiveness is of a different kind than Roethlisberger's- he'll throw the crippling risky pass in avoidance. Kurt Warner is a statue and will rush into passes or take sacks in the face of Capers' blitz-happy scheme. We already saw what Tony Romo and the longer routes the Cowboys like to run managed against the Packers. Drew Brees would dominate with the short passing game, but no one expects Green Bay to go to the KatrinaDome and beat the Saints. Donovan McNabb is the wild card-- he's nowhere near the runner he once was, but can't you just imagine Pass-DMC eluding Cullen Jenkins, stepping up, and finding DeSean Jackson running free on blown Bigby coverage at least twice in any playoff game? I really hope we don't play Philly.

2. Drops

You'd like to think the uncharacteristic amount of drops in the past few games by Driver and Jennings are more of an anomaly than what will happen going forward. As I mentioned earlier, it's good to see them spreading the ball around though. Jennings' big game could have a huge impact on the team's chances of making, and winning in, the playoffs.

3. 3-4

Pittsburgh gets to practice against a 3-4 every day. I'm guessing this played some role in how comfortable Roethlisberger looked, even in the face of a variety of coverage and blitz looks.

In the end, it doesn't matter. If we don't go undefeated to end the season, NYG or DAL has to lose a game. If the 'Boys don't lose to Philly this week, we're really fucked. So...don't read this post, because we're losing to ARI. Shit!