Brace Yourselves
1. St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: This QB class reminds me a little bit of the 2008 draft, when I liked the first couple guys (Ryan, Flacco) much less than the next few (Brohm, Woodson, Booty). Obviously, I was wrong that year, so you can safely assume that Bradford and Clausen are going to be stars and the rest will suck. I do think Bradford is a significantly safer prospect than Clausen because of his height, but he does have a bunch of red flags, having only played QB out of the spread offense, throwing at a three-quarters arm slot, going to a horrible franchise with no notable offensive mind, and possessing the legs of Bill Walton. He may not be a bust, but I don’t see Bradford ever becoming a top 5 QB.
2. Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: One could argue Russell Okung should be the pick here to protect Detroit’s investment in Matthew Stafford, but Suh, the safer of the two defensive tackles, is too talented to pass up. After signing Kyle Vanden Bosch, trading for the embattled Corey Williams, and cutting future Hall-of-Famer Ryan Kees, Jim Schwartz gets his Haynesworth-esque cog to complete Detroit’s
Extreme Makeover: Lions D-Line Edition, enabling them to further close the gap with the other three NFC North teams.
You had a good run Kees. Way to be "that guy" and pick #69, by the way.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: After spurning draft overtures a year ago, some draft experts, including highly-respected Mike Mayock, have McCoy graded out as the best player in this draft. The former Sooner could very well be the pass-rush threat from the inside that Tommie Harris once was in his prime for Chicago.
4. Washington Redskins- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: If Shanny overthinks this and takes someone other than Okung or Trent Williams, it could be disastrous for the ‘Skins, who have an overwhelming need to shore up their edge protection after losing Chris Samuels to retirement. Not a sexy pick, but after dealing for McNabb, Washington needs bodies up front that can contribute immediately.
Tanahan and Sour Murnane: Cut from the same cloth
5. Kansas City Chiefs- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Four players from the state of Oklahoma, all of the top 5 from the Big 12- yet none from conference champion Texas. Many believe with some seasoning, Williams will be the best offensive lineman in this class, but the Redskins don’t have time to wait; Kansas City does. And if Williams turns out to bust, what’s the worst that could happen? Matt Cassel gets injured?
6. Seattle Seahawks- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: Pete Carroll and John Schneider will absolutely be looking to stockpile talent for the depleted Seahawks, and given that “best player available” approach, Berry is the logical choice. Often times, the best value comes after the top 5 picks, when teams with fewer needs can afford to take the most talented player, regardless of position. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has been on record saying that safeties do not provide appropriate value for a top 10 pick, but Carroll will have no problem snatching up this transcendent safety talent, who I believe is the draft’s surest, and overall best, player on the board. Quick and strong, utilizing every bit of his 5’11” frame, Berry is reminiscent of a smaller Troy Polamalu, with the capability to return kicks and punts as well.
7. Cleveland Browns- Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech: This is where things get interesting. An absolute beast off the edge in the mold of Mario Williams, Morgan should be able to shift to the 3-4 OLB, although Eric Mangini tried that with Vernon Gholston in New York, and we all know how that ended up. Morgan is more of a proven commodity than Gholston, though, and sticks out as the best player available. Joe Haden and Rolando McClain are also possibilities here to help shore up the atrocious Browns defense, as is Dez Bryant.
8. Oakland Raiders- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: You never can tell who Oakland will take, but one thing you can be sure of is that they will not allow widely presumed value dictate their choice. Al Davis always gets his man, and it is well documented that he loves combine performance. Bruce Campbell certainly fits that distinction, but so does Anthony Davis, who is more the mauler-type offensive lineman that the Raiders are likely to pursue.
9. Buffalo Bills- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: The QB everyone loves to hate, Clausen put on a nice show in his Pro Day, displaying added upper body strength and the accuracy that defined his final campaign at Notre Dame. Many front offices remain concerned with Clausen from both a physical and mental standpoint, given his lack of arm strength, a skewed throwing angle, and the immaturity that caused some South Bend hero to punch him in the face. Bryan Bulaga will also merit consideration, but Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey go all-in on the polarizing signal-caller.
God, I am AWESOME!
10. Jacksonville Jaguars- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: This feels like an ideal spot for the first trade of the draft. The Jags will be fielding numerous calls from teams attempting to deal ahead of Denver to nab the much maligned but extraordinarily gifted ex-Cowboy. Jacksonville has made no secret of their love interest in Tim Tebow, and by trading down and adding picks, they would give themselves the ammunition to trade into the late first round or early second to make that marketing dream a reality. Also, did you know David Garrard is 33 years old? If a trade doesn’t go down, Bryant is still a possibility for this woebegone franchise dying to drum up some interest in their sleepy product, as well as someone to team with Sims-Walker and give old man Garrard a legit WR core before he heads to the glue factory.
11. Denver Broncos- Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama: One of the safest players available, McClain fills a gaping need to help occupy the inside in Denver’s 3-4 defense. McClain displays shades of Patrick Willis with his instinctive play and leadership by example. Also interesting to note is how the two top SEC inside linebackers, McClain and Florida’s Brandon Spikes, were once considered similarly skilled- McClain has since emerged as an unquestioned top 15 pick, while Spikes is crossing his fingers that his name is called on Day 2.
Awww...the Denver Broncos!? D'Oh!
12. Miami Dolphins- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: Another team looking to trade down and fill multiple holes, the Fins would be wise to stand pat and grab their 3-4 NT of the future in Williams. After dealing for Brandon Marshall, they’re no longer a logical fit for Dez Bryant if he were to somehow fall. Earl Thomas is another player that will be considered, but after drafting Vontae Davis and Sean Smith a year ago, the Dolphins pass on another defensive back in this year’s first round.
13. San Francisco 49ers- Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa: For the second straight year, the 49ers have a very difficult decision to make between value (Joe Haden this year, Michael Crabtree last year), and a RT to play opposite Star Chip Joe Staley (Bulaga this year, Michael Oher in 2009). This time around, with the NFC West very much up for grabs, the Niners don’t mess around, opting for need over potential. Meanwhile, Frank Gore has implored management not to take Spiller, and I say they oblige. The Niners have also been linked to Jimmy Clausen, but with the former Golden Domer gone, Bulaga should be the pick for a team that will head into 2010 as the prohibitive favorites in the NFL’s worst division.
14. Seattle Seahawks- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: In this absolute dream scenario for Seahawk fans, they get the draft’s most explosive player here at 14, as well as the safest in Eric Berry at 6. Not a bad haul for the new regime, with Hollywood Carroll getting his hands on two blue-chip athletes he once coveted for USC… though if Bulaga had fallen, the spirit of Ted Thompson that resides within John Schneider would be doing backflips in the Seattle war room.
15. New York Giants- Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG, Florida: Tough situation for the Giants if the top 14 go as predicted here, with top target McClain and the big four OTs all off the board. The G-Men could trade down with some team in love with Joe Haden or Jason Pierre-Paul, but they won’t panic if nothing presents itself. Jerry Reese runs as efficient of a draft as there is in the league, and he’ll have no problem “reaching” for Pouncey here, an immediate starter who is flying up draft boards.
16. Tennessee Titans- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: With the depth at the DE position this year, Jeff Fisher will have his pick of the litter to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch. He rolls the dice on JPP’s size over undersized but productive Brandon Graham, in the hopes that history will repeat itself on the 11th anniversary of the 1999 NFL Draft, when Tennessee took another athletic defensive end from the SEC who fell into their laps at 16: Jevon Kearse.
17. San Francisco 49ers- Joe Haden, CB, Florida: San Francisco fans rejoice, while Mike Singletary drops trou and does something else with Haden slipping into his hands at 17. After running a subpar 40 at the combine, Haden’s stock has slipped. The fact of the matter is, however, that he is the best player at a premium position, and should not have fallen out of the top 10. Haden remains an extremely gifted athlete at the corner position, and while some questions persist regarding his general polish in coverage, he is a playmaker and future Pro Bowler. San Francisco is a strong team made stronger with the addition of two starters at positions of need in this draft. Now if they only had an upgrade over Alex Smith…
What I wouldn't do to see this guy in Green and Gold...
Meanwhile, as we embark upon the second half of the first round, this draft’s overwhelming talent pool is evident, with several top-caliber players (Joe Haden, Earl Thomas, Sergio Kindle, Kyle Wilson) still available.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: The run on offensive linemen continues, with the Steelers getting their nasty, snarling guard of the next decade. Iupati in a Steelers uniform seems like it’s destined to happen.
19. Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan: The Falcons shore up their pass rush by taking the player with the most tackles for loss in college football a season ago.
20. Houston Texans- Earl Thomas, S, Texas: I don’t feel good about Thomas slipping to 20, but with teams filling bigger needs earlier, the former Longhorn free-falls to Houston. If he’s still on the board in the mid-teens, some team (either the Packers and Eagles, amongst others) will almost assuredly make a move up to prevent this scenario from occurring. Thomas is the kind of finesse, playmaking safety Ed Reed is. The Texans have quietly drafted extremely well in the past few years, getting Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, and since-departed Dunta Robinson, who they will have to look to replace on the draft’s second day if Thomas is indeed on the board.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: If not for injury concerns, Gresham might be a top 10 pick. When healthy, he is the best all-around TE prospect since Kellen Winslow, and would fill a pressing need for Cincinnati in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
22. New England Patriots- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: An absolutely perfect fit, New England gets the ultra-productive Texas product to help re-KINDLE (see what I did there?) a defense that once prided itself on its linebacker play.
23. Green Bay Packers- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU: This is pretty much the situation I expect the Packers to be in on draft day, with no surprising top-flight players falling to them (Big 4 OTs, Haden, Thomas, Spiller) or top-20/tweener guys Thompson would have a hard time passing on if they were available (Graham, Iupati). Although Kyle Wilson could step in immediately to play both corner and special teams, while providing the versatility Dom Capers loves, he falls below Ted Thompson’s 5’10” requisite for CBs. Jahvid Best is another guy I think the Packers will consider, but ultimately pass on because of the possibility of the Brian Westbrook signing. That leaves a choice between OTs Charles Brown and Bruce Campbell, OLBs Hughes and Everson Griffen, CBs Kareem Jackson and Devin McCourty, and S Taylor Mays.
Narrowing it down… Griffen has question marks about whether or not he can shift from 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB (like Aaron Kampman did), and Campbell is just too raw to contribute for a team that is, as Thompson says himself, not that far away from being a legit contender. McCourty and Jackson both flash the ability to be solid players with the size Thompson values, but they are not much better than the CBs that should be available later in the draft. I believe Mays and Brown are both players Thompson truly will consider, as he loves raw talent and trusts his coaches. But, at the end of the day, Hughes falls into the high-motor/high-ceiling kind of player that both McCarthy and Thompson obsess over, and make a choice Packer fans can get excited about.
No Mormons get past the line of scrimmage on Hairy Jews' watch
24. Philadelphia Eagles- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: Dealing Sheldon Brown leaves a bit of a hole in the secondary, and the Eagles always load up on talent in their cornerback core. Wilson could also factor in as a return man, allowing DeSean Jackson to focus on running crisper routes with new starting QB Kevin Kolb at the helm. Rumor has it that many teams have Wilson ahead of Haden, in which case he will almost certainly be a top 15 pick.
25. Baltimore Ravens- Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: I don’t like Odrick’s value as a 3-4 DE in the first round. Still, although Odrick isn’t the best player available by any means, the Ravens need a big body to take up some space next to, and attention off of, all-world NT Haloti Ngata. Demaryius Thomas is an intriguing but less necessary option after dealing for Anquan Boldin.
26. Arizona Cardinals- Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: With the losses of cornerstones Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, and Antrel Rolle, the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to defend their two year run as NFC West champs. Enter McCoy, a sharp, passionate player that couldn’t be any less Leinart if he tried. McCoy’s value has risen to this range, and a team may try to trade ahead of the Vikings to ensure they get the decorated Texan if the Cards pass on McCoy to take someone like Everson Griffen. In this scenario, Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t let that happen.
27. Dallas Cowboys- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: After cutting Flozell Adams, the ‘Boys are in need of some talent to protect Tony Romo on the outside. Campbell, who is a bit of a project, but could still start right away as an athletic RT if need be, makes sense.
28. San Diego Chargers- Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State: Matthews may get snatched up earlier, but if he slips, he’s an ideal fit to take over LaDainian Tomlinson’s post as the every-down back, which would allow Darren Sproles to continue to be effective as the change-of-pace home run hitter. They’ll definitely consider Terrence Cody here as well to take over the 3-4 nose tackle spot from Denver-bound Jamal Williams.
29. New York Jets- Taylor Mays, S, USC: Team
Hard Knocks will get plenty of them from Mays as the enforcer over the deep middle. A secondary of Revis, Cromartie, Leonhard and Mays would be as talented as any in the NFL.
Take Notes, Welkah
30. Minnesota Vikings- Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama: Big, physical corner that can start right away for a Vikings secondary that needs quality and depth behind one of the best defensive fronts in football. Vikes will also think about Patrick Robinson and Devin McCourty, but ultimately settle upon the most NFL-ready of the available corners.
31. Indianapolis Colts- Charles Brown, OT, USC: Indianapolis is one of the best teams in the NFL at drafting and developing players. They have an effective but aging offensive line, so bringing in a developmental player Brown, who could start in a pinch if need be, seems like a decent fit.
32. New Orleans Saints- Everson Griffen, OLB/DE, USC: The rich get richer, as the ultra-talented Griffen could play OLB or DE for the Saints 3-4 scheme, providing pass rush for Gregg Williams off the edge. Sean Weatherspoon could be the pick as well, but is a better fit as a 4-3 outside linebacker.
