Usually a thrilling, last-second 37-36 road defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champions is filed under the "Good Loss" column. However, in this case, it brings to light three huge concerns that, either singularly or in combination, will likely preclude the Packers from making a serious championship run this season. At the same time, there are a few potential blips that may not correspond to the rest of the season for Green Bay. Here's a look at both-
3 Causes for Concern
1. Secondary Depth
When Al Harris' knee blew out against San Francisco a few weeks ago, the immediate concern was not whether or not Tramon Williams could replace him (debatable thus far), but how the Packers would cope with career special teamer and pass coverage doormat Jarrett Bush playing a prominent role in nickel defense. In the past few weeks, Dom Capers has done a masterful job of hiding Bush, only allowing him to get burnt a few times, and blitzing frequently. Eventually, though, someone was going to victimize him, and Big Ben was all too happy to oblige, ripping Bush apart time after time as the Steelers completely abandoned the run. Recently-acquired Josh Bell, in limited action, was the victim of Roethlisberger's perfect final pass, in addition to an illegal contact penalty on the final drive, but I'd still trust him over Bush at this point.
2. Mason Crosby
It's tough to give up on a guy when there's nothing else out there in the way of capable replacements, but missing inside 40 yards is simply unacceptable. And when you do it in several consecutive games...
Any terrible kicker on the NFL fringe should still be able to hit those. If he blows one more within his range, you have to assume the Packers will at least try out some other kickers. I love Crosby's talent, but at some point, as with any other position, you have to ask yourself- when do we stop trusting a talented player who isn't getting the job done?
3. Coaching
Once again, throughout the first half, McCarthy displayed a terrible sense of offensive rhythm, settling for a FG (which Crosby promptly shanked) in a potential touchdown situation, going 3-and-out three times, and bungling clock management on the last drive of the half, which could have resulted in another FG (which would have been missed by Crosby). I do give McCarthy credit for righting the ship and giving up on the run when it clearly wasn't working. Watching Rodgers spread the ball around to every one of his WRs in big spots (JMF, Jordy, Jones all had big catches) was promising, and keeping opposing defenses honest will keep the Packers in any game in the next few games and (hopefully) the postseason. However, on the other side of the ball, for the first time, I was seriously concerned about Dom Capers' in-game adjustments. Dropping Hawk in nickel until the end of the game was a huge mistake. Not bringing any pressure (Jarius Wynn and Brady Poppinga were pass-rushing on the last play), consequently putting Bush in a position where he could continue to get destroyed, was destined for failure. Not bringing any delayed blitzes against a QB who is notorious for squirming out of arm tackles- bad oversight. Obviously the players put themselves in the position they were left in- Chillar had his worst game in coverage I can remember, Bush and Hawk were awful, Bell was out of position on the last pass, Bigby seems to be a liability as over-the-top help - but it's the defensive coordinator's job to cover up his team's weaknesses. For one week, Capers did the opposite, and I'm not sure how he'll be able to cover it up in the future.
There may be a few reasons to believe this one game may have been what McCarthy calls it- simply an outlier on what has been an excellent "14-game body of work".
3 Reasons for Hope
1. Roethlisberger's Elusiveness
Look at the contending QBs in the NFC and compare them to why Roethlisberger was so successful, and you may come to a more optimistic conclusion (if such a thing exists) that the 503 yard clinic Big Ben put on was more of an exception than what we can expect. Obviously, a certain #4 doesn't take many sacks for the Vikes, but, as Packer fans are all too aware, his elusiveness is of a different kind than Roethlisberger's- he'll throw the crippling risky pass in avoidance. Kurt Warner is a statue and will rush into passes or take sacks in the face of Capers' blitz-happy scheme. We already saw what Tony Romo and the longer routes the Cowboys like to run managed against the Packers. Drew Brees would dominate with the short passing game, but no one expects Green Bay to go to the KatrinaDome and beat the Saints. Donovan McNabb is the wild card-- he's nowhere near the runner he once was, but can't you just imagine Pass-DMC eluding Cullen Jenkins, stepping up, and finding DeSean Jackson running free on blown Bigby coverage at least twice in any playoff game? I really hope we don't play Philly.
2. Drops
You'd like to think the uncharacteristic amount of drops in the past few games by Driver and Jennings are more of an anomaly than what will happen going forward. As I mentioned earlier, it's good to see them spreading the ball around though. Jennings' big game could have a huge impact on the team's chances of making, and winning in, the playoffs.
3. 3-4
Pittsburgh gets to practice against a 3-4 every day. I'm guessing this played some role in how comfortable Roethlisberger looked, even in the face of a variety of coverage and blitz looks.
In the end, it doesn't matter. If we don't go undefeated to end the season, NYG or DAL has to lose a game. If the 'Boys don't lose to Philly this week, we're really fucked. So...don't read this post, because we're losing to ARI. Shit!
December 23, 2009
November 20, 2009
Properly Evaluating Decisions
Commentators of all types have spent the week calling shenanigans on Bill Belichick for his decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. The SG finally weighed in today. To put it mildly, he was not a fan of the decision.
The gist of the Simmons column is this- Stats are fine, but you have to use your eyes. Watch the game! And when the two don’t match up, the stats can't be trusted. I don't really fault Simmons for saying this sort of thing. It's how most people think. Here's an example of his thought process:
“In the biggest game of the regular season, when a football coach tries something that -- and this is coming from someone who watches 12 hours of football every Sunday dating back to elementary school -- I cannot remember another team doing on the road in the last three minutes of a close game, that's not ‘gutsy.’ It's not a ‘gamble.’ It's not ‘believing we can get that two yards.’ It's not ‘revolutionary.’ It's not ‘statistically smart.’ It's reckless. It's something that should happen only in video games, and only when you and your roommate are both high.”
I happen to think that’s a poorly reasoned paragraph. But I would bet that Bill Belichick wants every single coach and player the Pats play to think in that same way. He’s a great coach precisely because Belichick isn’t afraid to take the heat. Remember when he called for an intentional safety? I bet that if they had lost that game, he’d be getting the same reaction as he is now. That time it worked, and he’s a genius. This time it didn’t, and he’s a complete moron. But none of that matters to him. All he cares about is winning. Joe Posnanski made this point better than I ever could. The reason he wants people to think like Simmons is that he can exploit it and put to his advantage. He knows that decisions cannot be evaluated by the result, only by the expected result at the time the decision was made.
The problem with the anti-Belichick arguments is that they're on the fact that the attempt failed. Had the attempt succeeded, Belichick would be hailed yet again as a genius. Decisions, even in sports, have to be evaluated based on the circumstances the decision maker faced at that moment in time. Belichick knew that going for it gave the Patriots the best chance of winning.
(If you want to bring in the non-probability factors, he had, as recently as the 2006 playoffs, lost a late lead to the Colts by giving Peyton Manning a chance to win the game. In this game, the Colts were rallying and the Pats D was worn down. Lastly, the “not trusting the defense” argument fails because it’s equally arguable that he was saying- “look, defense, we’re going to go for it because it maximizes our chance to win, but if it fails it’s all up to you guys.” But none if this is the point.)
The point is that it was the right decision at the time, and Belichick was not afraid to make it. Most coaches wouldn't have the balls (see below).
Pats fans should be thankful to have a coach like that at the helm.
____
It could be the case that the Sports Guy (and those like him) just don't understand probabilities. Look at the analogy he chose-
The analogy fails horribly because “the percentages” in the Deer Hunter case are-
Choice 1- Walken doesn’t put the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 0%.
Choice 2- Walken puts the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 16.67%.
It’s obvious which choice is “playing the percentages.” (Also, does the SG have editors? 5/6 is 83.33%.)
In Belichick’s case
Go for it- Win Probability: 79%
Punt- Win Probability: 70%.
(Numbers taken from Advanced NFL Stats.)
Going for it is playing the percentages.
_____
(further reading- Stevin Levitt @ Freaknomics. Coaches and the principle-agent problem. TMQ makes this point often, too.)
c/p @ http://madisonthree.blogspot.com/
The gist of the Simmons column is this- Stats are fine, but you have to use your eyes. Watch the game! And when the two don’t match up, the stats can't be trusted. I don't really fault Simmons for saying this sort of thing. It's how most people think. Here's an example of his thought process:
“In the biggest game of the regular season, when a football coach tries something that -- and this is coming from someone who watches 12 hours of football every Sunday dating back to elementary school -- I cannot remember another team doing on the road in the last three minutes of a close game, that's not ‘gutsy.’ It's not a ‘gamble.’ It's not ‘believing we can get that two yards.’ It's not ‘revolutionary.’ It's not ‘statistically smart.’ It's reckless. It's something that should happen only in video games, and only when you and your roommate are both high.”
I happen to think that’s a poorly reasoned paragraph. But I would bet that Bill Belichick wants every single coach and player the Pats play to think in that same way. He’s a great coach precisely because Belichick isn’t afraid to take the heat. Remember when he called for an intentional safety? I bet that if they had lost that game, he’d be getting the same reaction as he is now. That time it worked, and he’s a genius. This time it didn’t, and he’s a complete moron. But none of that matters to him. All he cares about is winning. Joe Posnanski made this point better than I ever could. The reason he wants people to think like Simmons is that he can exploit it and put to his advantage. He knows that decisions cannot be evaluated by the result, only by the expected result at the time the decision was made.
The problem with the anti-Belichick arguments is that they're on the fact that the attempt failed. Had the attempt succeeded, Belichick would be hailed yet again as a genius. Decisions, even in sports, have to be evaluated based on the circumstances the decision maker faced at that moment in time. Belichick knew that going for it gave the Patriots the best chance of winning.
(If you want to bring in the non-probability factors, he had, as recently as the 2006 playoffs, lost a late lead to the Colts by giving Peyton Manning a chance to win the game. In this game, the Colts were rallying and the Pats D was worn down. Lastly, the “not trusting the defense” argument fails because it’s equally arguable that he was saying- “look, defense, we’re going to go for it because it maximizes our chance to win, but if it fails it’s all up to you guys.” But none if this is the point.)
The point is that it was the right decision at the time, and Belichick was not afraid to make it. Most coaches wouldn't have the balls (see below).
Pats fans should be thankful to have a coach like that at the helm.
____
It could be the case that the Sports Guy (and those like him) just don't understand probabilities. Look at the analogy he chose-
'But by Monday night, based on various columns and message boards (as well as e-mails to my reader mailbox), you would have thought Belichick was a genius for blowing the game. He played the percentages! It wasn't as crazy as it looked! By this logic, Belichick also should have held a loaded pistol to his head on the sideline, spun the chamber and tried to shoot himself like Chris Walken in "The Deer Hunter." If those 1-in-6 odds came through and he succeeded, we could have said, "Hey, he played the percentages: 83.6666 percent of the time, you don't die in that situation! You can't blame him for what happened!'
The analogy fails horribly because “the percentages” in the Deer Hunter case are-
Choice 1- Walken doesn’t put the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 0%.
Choice 2- Walken puts the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 16.67%.
It’s obvious which choice is “playing the percentages.” (Also, does the SG have editors? 5/6 is 83.33%.)
In Belichick’s case
Go for it- Win Probability: 79%
Punt- Win Probability: 70%.
(Numbers taken from Advanced NFL Stats.)
Going for it is playing the percentages.
_____
(further reading- Stevin Levitt @ Freaknomics. Coaches and the principle-agent problem. TMQ makes this point often, too.)
c/p @ http://madisonthree.blogspot.com/
October 7, 2009
Savior
TWENTY!!!!!
TWENTY mother fucking sacks.
Twenty mother fucking sacks, two fumbles, and two safeties. In four games. With a relatively mobile quarterback.
Luckily, our prayers have been answered.
LET'S ROCK
TWENTY mother fucking sacks.
Twenty mother fucking sacks, two fumbles, and two safeties. In four games. With a relatively mobile quarterback.
Luckily, our prayers have been answered.
LET'S ROCK
September 21, 2009
FIX IT!
Win or lose, every week our team will make mistakes. It will be my goal at the conclusion of each game to identify the weakest link and attempt to remedy the situation. How will I cure our biggest problems? Simple, I’ll FIX IT!
For those unfamiliar with how to fix something, let me lay out the process. Or, if you don’t fancy yourself a reader, refer to the video below.
Step One: FIX!
Step Two: IT!
Step Three: FIX IT!
Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9/20)
Public Enemy #1: The Offensive Line
What the fuck happened here? I’m baffled. I don’t remember complaining about them much last year, and it was pretty much the same dudes. We kept our left side in tact and replaced an aging, ACL-less staple (I still love you, Tauscher) with a younger, meaner and more athletic RT in Allen Barbre. Everything we heard out of camp was that the line should actually be noticeably improved with the C/RG combination of Spitz/Sitton as opposed to Wells/Spitz. Improved? Shit no. An offensive line that can’t protect the passer OR open up holes in the running game isn’t much of an offensive line at all.
After two games, all signs point to our offensive line being completely fucked. With Chad Clifton expected to miss time we are forced to move our left guard Daryn Colledge out to left tackle. DC is a hell of a LG, but, unfortunately, left tackle is a different ball game. I shouldn’t have to spell out how important a left tackle is to a football team (Michael Lewis does that in his book “The Blind Side” – I recommend it), but suffice it to say there is a reason we see LTs taken top ten in the draft year after year. To make matters worse, the offensive line was given help on a staggering 80% of plays (according to @tompelissero), which makes it impossible to spread out and use what many consider the best four-deep receiving corps in football. If you were an opposing defense, wouldn’t you rather see Lee, Kuhn and Grant in as blockers opposed to Jones, Jordy and Jermichael split out?
With all this doom-and-gloom surrounding our OLine, what can be done to get it turned around? Call me crazy, but I honestly think the best approach to take with this group is patience. Don’t sign desperation free agents, don’t panic and become an ultra-conservative offense, simply give them time because I believe it will get worked out. Not to say they’ll be amazing, but I believe they can return to being a perfectly adequate pass-protection unit. Give them time to work out the kinks and let’s hope this young, talented unit can gel together. I’m obviously biased toward DC because he is clearly the most likeable guy on the team, but I think he’ll be an able fill-in at LT, and possibly the long-term solution at that position – although I’m not going to hold my breath on the latter.
As far as the running game goes, I don't think the combination of this line and these RBs will ever produce an above-average rushing attack. Hopefully we can produce just enough on the ground to keep defenses honest and attain some semblance of offensive balance.
It’s fitting that Pagel’s first FIX IT! solution simply requires being lazy; just sit around and wait for them to play better.
Predicted problem for next week vs. St. Louis: Ryan Grant.
It actually might be a banner week for Ryan. I’m going to go on record and predict he will break his first career tackle this week against the Rams. You can do it, Ryan!
August 22, 2009
Favre v. Packer Nation
A game hasn't been played, and it already feels like we’re losing.
Let me preface this by making it very clear that I sincerely love Green Bay Packers football. Nothing makes me want to get drunk and jump in the way of Donte Stallworth’s wayward automobile more than when they (inevitably) blow game after game.
Mainstream media’s infatuation with Favre, intentional or not, deservedly or not, has tarnished his image, forever. Isn’t that enough? Are we, as Packer fans, going to let his comeback continue to torment us?
I’ve never seen a story more closely covered than the 3-plus weeks ESPN spent in the late summer of 2008 setting Wendi Nix up in Kiln, waiting for 4 to make his final decision. They built him up (Oakland MNF, Seahawks comeback, near-Super Bowl berth), only to break him down (painkiller addiction, interception-fest, playoff losses, indecisive decision maker). Non-stop Favre coverage for the past year has been like poison to football fans. Still, like alcoholics in the face of a bottle of tequila, we took shots of it, cringed, then drank some more.
Don’t you realize, Packer fan/Favre haters, what it is you’re doing? They want the “Can you believe how much lil’ God-lovin’, Cow-milkin’ Wisconsin hates the good ol’ boy?” story. You didn’t mean to, but you bought in, Packer fan/Favre haters. Think about it from another perspective…
My dad is 55 years old. He loves his family, and, while he truly enjoys the work he does, he’s not sure if he can endure the pressure of coming in and making such influential decisions anymore. The last few years, he’s considered leaving the company for other pursuits- retirement, teaching, travel- whatever it is that he wants to do. I imagine the following, fairly realistic, situation, and how I would react:
My dad finally chooses to quit his job at a medical research company, and informs the company of his decision. Being away for a while left my dad restless and missing his job. After mulling it over, he decided he could absorb the stresses of at least one more year, and changed his mind. Nevertheless, his company left him no choice but to leave, as they had a 30 year old they had already promoted to be groomed for the position.
I wouldn't blame the company, or my dad, for that situation. (Note: this was an important realization, because last year at this time, I blamed the company) And I don't think anyone (stockholders, front office people, fellow workers in the industry) would really have the right to be mad if he chose to go work for a rival company. It’s really unfortunate, because I'm sure people felt a certain bond having him running the first company's lab for so long, but that company put him in that position. Both move on. No love should be lost.
Like a worker at the first company with my dad, I want to hate Favre, because it’s easy; but, ultimately, it's his decision to make. It's his life; as he says, "the legacy (...) it's mine." I feel betrayed as a fan that he chose to go to our biggest rival, but I can't/don't blame him as a man for choosing to continue at the profession he excels at.
I realize this is football, not pharmaceutical research. But it still has parallels. Take the media out of it, and what do you have? If this situation came about 40 years ago, what would we be left with? Yes, Favre held a tearful press conference, he told Peter King and Joe Buck and Chris Mortenson and that dude from the Biloxi Sun everything that was going on in his mind. But is that really a reason to hate the guy?
Packer fan 1: “so much for watching TV for another 2 weeks… FML…what a douche…cutler v. favre, i don't even know who i'd root for in that matchup…my favre hatred is spiraling out of control (excuse the pun)”
Packer fan 2: “…he’s a traitor he’s a traitor he’s a traitor he’s a traitor…”
Disappointed? Sure. Every time I see that purple #4, I know I’ll shudder. If he just had to leave, couldn’t he have gone somewhere else than Minnesota? Couldn’t he have made a decision quicker? Did he really have to draw out the whole process? Does he realize what he’s doing – is this whole comeback/un-retirement a ploy to get his name in the public? The point is, no matter what the answers to these questions are, it really doesn’t matter. Call me a Favre apologist if you will, but if you’re letting it get to you, that’s really too bad.
As hard as it’ll be playing him twice a year, and trying to take down the division over a team he will be leading, I think we’ll all be okay (especially if the Packers are winning). If you get caught up in the Vikings, it’s your loss for focusing on the QB across the western state line, while ESPN, amongst others, takes advantage of your frustration.
So take a deep breath. Let’s all enjoy the fact that our favorite team is an exciting bunch, full of youth, talent, depth, and Kuhn, led by a top-5 player at the same position as Favre. In fact, maybe we should take a page out of that QB’s book-
"I don't have a reaction. It doesn't pertain to me. It has absolutely nothing to do with me. It doesn't change anything. It has nothing to do with the Green Bay Packers."
No matter what happens in the standings, the season will be a lot more enjoyable if the ol’ Wisconsinites just handle “Brent” with the indifference he deserves.
Let me preface this by making it very clear that I sincerely love Green Bay Packers football. Nothing makes me want to get drunk and jump in the way of Donte Stallworth’s wayward automobile more than when they (inevitably) blow game after game.
Mainstream media’s infatuation with Favre, intentional or not, deservedly or not, has tarnished his image, forever. Isn’t that enough? Are we, as Packer fans, going to let his comeback continue to torment us?
I’ve never seen a story more closely covered than the 3-plus weeks ESPN spent in the late summer of 2008 setting Wendi Nix up in Kiln, waiting for 4 to make his final decision. They built him up (Oakland MNF, Seahawks comeback, near-Super Bowl berth), only to break him down (painkiller addiction, interception-fest, playoff losses, indecisive decision maker). Non-stop Favre coverage for the past year has been like poison to football fans. Still, like alcoholics in the face of a bottle of tequila, we took shots of it, cringed, then drank some more.
Don’t you realize, Packer fan/Favre haters, what it is you’re doing? They want the “Can you believe how much lil’ God-lovin’, Cow-milkin’ Wisconsin hates the good ol’ boy?” story. You didn’t mean to, but you bought in, Packer fan/Favre haters. Think about it from another perspective…
My dad is 55 years old. He loves his family, and, while he truly enjoys the work he does, he’s not sure if he can endure the pressure of coming in and making such influential decisions anymore. The last few years, he’s considered leaving the company for other pursuits- retirement, teaching, travel- whatever it is that he wants to do. I imagine the following, fairly realistic, situation, and how I would react:
My dad finally chooses to quit his job at a medical research company, and informs the company of his decision. Being away for a while left my dad restless and missing his job. After mulling it over, he decided he could absorb the stresses of at least one more year, and changed his mind. Nevertheless, his company left him no choice but to leave, as they had a 30 year old they had already promoted to be groomed for the position.
I wouldn't blame the company, or my dad, for that situation. (Note: this was an important realization, because last year at this time, I blamed the company) And I don't think anyone (stockholders, front office people, fellow workers in the industry) would really have the right to be mad if he chose to go work for a rival company. It’s really unfortunate, because I'm sure people felt a certain bond having him running the first company's lab for so long, but that company put him in that position. Both move on. No love should be lost.
Like a worker at the first company with my dad, I want to hate Favre, because it’s easy; but, ultimately, it's his decision to make. It's his life; as he says, "the legacy (...) it's mine." I feel betrayed as a fan that he chose to go to our biggest rival, but I can't/don't blame him as a man for choosing to continue at the profession he excels at.
I realize this is football, not pharmaceutical research. But it still has parallels. Take the media out of it, and what do you have? If this situation came about 40 years ago, what would we be left with? Yes, Favre held a tearful press conference, he told Peter King and Joe Buck and Chris Mortenson and that dude from the Biloxi Sun everything that was going on in his mind. But is that really a reason to hate the guy?
Packer fan 1: “so much for watching TV for another 2 weeks… FML…what a douche…cutler v. favre, i don't even know who i'd root for in that matchup…my favre hatred is spiraling out of control (excuse the pun)”
Packer fan 2: “…he’s a traitor he’s a traitor he’s a traitor he’s a traitor…”
Disappointed? Sure. Every time I see that purple #4, I know I’ll shudder. If he just had to leave, couldn’t he have gone somewhere else than Minnesota? Couldn’t he have made a decision quicker? Did he really have to draw out the whole process? Does he realize what he’s doing – is this whole comeback/un-retirement a ploy to get his name in the public? The point is, no matter what the answers to these questions are, it really doesn’t matter. Call me a Favre apologist if you will, but if you’re letting it get to you, that’s really too bad.
As hard as it’ll be playing him twice a year, and trying to take down the division over a team he will be leading, I think we’ll all be okay (especially if the Packers are winning). If you get caught up in the Vikings, it’s your loss for focusing on the QB across the western state line, while ESPN, amongst others, takes advantage of your frustration.
So take a deep breath. Let’s all enjoy the fact that our favorite team is an exciting bunch, full of youth, talent, depth, and Kuhn, led by a top-5 player at the same position as Favre. In fact, maybe we should take a page out of that QB’s book-
"I don't have a reaction. It doesn't pertain to me. It has absolutely nothing to do with me. It doesn't change anything. It has nothing to do with the Green Bay Packers."
No matter what happens in the standings, the season will be a lot more enjoyable if the ol’ Wisconsinites just handle “Brent” with the indifference he deserves.
July 31, 2009
The Case for Vick
Disclaimer: This will never happen.
Say for a minute you’re Ted Thompson. You’ve just peeled your body out from within the tender big spoon embrace of Aaron Rodgers, hopped in your purple PT cruiser and headed off to 1265 Lombardi Avenue to put on the façade that you know what the hell you’re doing. You’ve never been one to make a splash that didn’t involve B.J. Raji and a tub of KY, but today is the day you, Theodore Thompson, become an icon.
You’ve already proven that appeasing Green Bay’s rabid fan base has zero priority on your ‘To-Do’ list. Rumor has it that you’ve flirted with an orgy of the biggest names in the game- Randy Moss, Julius Peppers, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez- only to come away with none. his time it's different, though, isn't it Teddy? This time, it counts.
For better or for worse, you don't actually care what the fans want and would never go out of your way to do something to make them excited, but lucky for you they give a Poppinga about what you put on the field, and this time, there's an option that works both for you and the fans. The economy is in the worst shape it’s been in your lifetime. You are responsible for managing the only publicly-owned franchise in sports in the middle of this crisis. So while other teams might feel the hurt of the economy because their fans choose not to go to their games or buy their merchandise, your team is actually being run by taxpayers who are forced to get cheaper. The Patriots can always fall back on Bob Kraft’s millions, but the Packers don’t have that luxury, even in an age of revenue sharing. At some point, you have to shoulder your own weight.
Which brings us to Mr. Vick.
Is he the answer to your fiscal and competitive goals? No, not entirely. But he gives you an extra dimension, both on and off the field, which could push a nucleus of pretty good young talent to the next level, and give the publicly-owned Packers the kind of financial boost it could certainly use.
Sure, this is a huge risk. It may not even be a calculated risk. But doesn't it seem like the perfect storm to escape being a marginal franchise, by taking a stab at an opportunity in which the rewards seem to far outweigh the cons?
Worst case scenario? Rodgers starts the season slow, and Vick wants to play fresh off his suspension. The young Packers prove vulnerable to Vick, who plays the role of locker room cancer. The Packers finish with a similar, or worse, record (mostly because the team simply isn’t ready to win games...not because Vick is whining on the sidelines). Turns out the 3-4 didn't improve the D as much as you expected in one season. The offense regresses as John Kuhn is 0 for 15 in goal line situations. Vick is gone after a year regardless. You and McCarthy are gone in a blaze of orange.
Best case? Vick acclimates to a Packer locker room that actually appears to enjoy one another. Being in jail humbles him, and he makes little to no fuss of the fact that Gay-Rodg is running the show. In hunt-happy Wisconsin, Cheeseheads worship a man who killed animals as a side job. Jerseys sell like hotcakes. On the field, your team, which has been through the biggest distraction in the history of the NFL just a season ago, weathers the Vick storm and proves itself to be a solid bunch; just about good enough on its best days to win a loaded NFC North, but missing the extra bit necessary to realistically contend for the conference. Enter post-suspension Mike Vick. He gives you the luxury of a legit backup QB you simply don’t have right now behind fragile Rodgers, and an athletic dimension no one in the league has. McCarthy has proven to be an innovative offensive mind, and could do wonders with a talent like #7. The Wildcat formation was the talk of the league last year, but the WildDog package becomes the Bonds-ed up version, featuring someone that can actually throw (unlike Chad Pennington) and run (unlike Chad Pennington). Vickmania spreads faster than a brat-induced Suamico trailer park wildfire.
Vooooooooooooooooooooosh!
I’m not saying, I’m just saying, Teddy. Trust your boy McCarthy and roll the dice. You're the man now, dog.
May 6, 2009
Mine That Brohm
Like every Kentucky Derby, last Saturday's "Run for the Roses" attracted a who's-who of A-list celebrities; including Michael Jackson, Paris Hilton, MJ, and Kim Kardashian. The biggest stars at Derby, however, were the NFL quarterbacks - and I'm not talking about attendees Tom Brady and Eli Manning. I'm talking about the true celebrities, the (QB) Rat (ing) Pack that go by the names Rodgers - Brohm - Flynn (sorry Sammy Davis Jr, only three spots on the roster).
Yes, you read that right. Packers QBs Aaron Rodgers, Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn did their best Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson impression - had "Wedding Crashers" actually stuck to its original title "Derby Crashers". Unfortunately, the studio had a problem with the rampant Vaughn-on-horse action, and it underwent massive rewrites.
Per an NFL Network report, Aaron Rodgers chartered a jet from Green Bay to Louisville, where Louisville-native Brian Brohm showed ARod and a handful of teammates how to do things the Kentucky way. Luckily, I was tipped off Friday afternoon by a bitter, uninvited John Kuhn and got down to Louisville just in time to snap a picture of Aaron in his Derby attire.
(called "Around the League")
April 23, 2009
Ted Thompson Cheat Sheet
When they get picked, cross them off. Highest person on the list available at #9 is the answer.
1) Jason Smith
-Best OT available
2) Andre Smith
-Andre the Giant to protect The Surgeon General
3) Aaron Curry
-He'll be a fantastic 3-4 OLB
4) Eugene Monroe
-Drops because of possible knee problems
5) Trade down for team interested in M. Sanchez or M. Crabtree
-Trading down to middle first (Jets #17, Broncs #18) and picking up another 2nd rounder is a good idea in a draft that is not very top-heavy
6) B.J. Raji
-Big talent who fits a huge need, but I just know on Saturday if he's gone before we pick I'll be happy
7) Brian Orakpo
-He could be Terrell Suggs, he could be Vernon Gholston; his top-end potential is worth the pick
8) Tyson Jackson
-Locks down a thin spot for the Pack
April 22, 2009
2009 Mock Draft
1) Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
Poor Lions. They go 0-16 and their reward is Matt Stafford…insult to injury. Staff-tits has the arm, but where’s the rest? Accuracy? Not really. Decision-making? Eh. I think there’s a chance he’ll be good, but it’s a small chance – even smaller considering he’s going to Detroit. There are questions with most top prospects, but Stafford seems to have too many. If I were a Lions fan I’d prefer they go with Jason Smith, because there’s less risk involved. If they pick Stafford they better be sure he succeeds because I don’t know how much more the beaten down fan base of Detroit can take.
2) St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT Baylor
Crabtree and Sanchez are too risky here. Jason Smith won’t let you down.
3) Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
This pick is unsettling. Curry is a stud, but is a guy with unproven pass rush ability really worth the money the third pick will receive? Seems like people agree that he’s amazing at his position, but teams need to figure out whether his position is important enough for the money. I’m putting him here, but I could see Curry fall out of the top eight. If he’s there the Packers will take him on value alone.
4) Seattle Seahawks – Mark Sanchez, QB USC
SI! Seahawks necesito un quarterback para que jugar futbol Americano muy bueno! Matt Hasselbeck es un quarterback mas viejo y malo. Senor Sanchez es un quarterback muy joven y bonita!
5) Cleveland Browns – Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
With Braylon Edwards on a plane to Manhattan, the Browns need his replacement. With Donte Stallworth headed to jail (I don’t know why, he honked to horn) and Joe Jurevicious collecting unemployment (at least he doesn’t have a kid to feed), they need some help desperately. Crabtree will never get to Calvin/Andre Johnson, Moss, Fitzgerald level; I see him in the group below.
6) Cincinnati Bengals – Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
They thought they would have to settle on Andre Smith, but get lucky when Monroe is available at six.
7) Oakland Raiders – Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri
The Raiders really need a receiver and Al Davis loves speed freaks. Enter Jeremy Maclin, perfect fit. I’m a big fan of Maclin, but unfortunately he’s going to have a tough time as long as JaMarcus is around. That guy sucks.
8) Jacksonville Jaguars – B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
With the top receivers off the board, Jacksonville needs to fill the void left by Marcus Stroud’s departure to Buffalo last season.
9) Green Bay Packers – Andre Smith, OT Alabama
The Packers will take Raji if he’s there. With Raji unavailable, the Packers make the safe move. Wait, what, Andre Smith is safe? Isn’t he the same asshole who scooted out of the Combine early, jiggled his way through a 40-yard dash, and got his shit suspended for the Bama’s Bowl game? Yes. BUT, while he may be an idiot, he’s the safe pick when you watch him play.
Tackle may not be the top team need, but all the DE/OLB hybrids carry significant risk and number 9 is too high for Tyson Jackson, who plays a position (3-4 defensive end) that’s relatively easy to fill.
It’s also not a bad idea to draft some protection for your new investment at quarterback. I’m just as excited about Aaron Rodgers as the next guy, but remember to keep in mind that he’s a brittle dude. Can we trust the already precarious health of our QB to GapTooth Clifton’s failing knees? You draft Andre with the plan to start him at RT and ride GapTooth one more year at LT. Next year you move Andre to LT, which should allow Packers project Breno Giacomini another year to develop as your RT. Worst case, Clifton gets Sapp’d again and you start your tackles of the future a year earlier than planned.
I put my interns to work to find out how many teams are starting first round left tackles. Wow, nineteen out of thirty two teams are starting first round left tackles. But wait, there’s more. Three teams have tried to settle that spot but failed with 1strounders (Buffalo – M. Williams, Buccaneers – K. Walker, Cardinals – L. Brown). Making it 22/32 teams who have decided to go first round for their left tackle. That must be the highest draft-selected position in the NFL.
Why do teams select OT’s so high? Very simple. They’re safe. And even if they “fail” they’re still usually safe. If your pick busts at LT, you can easily move him to a less important spot along the offensive line (ex: Robert Gallery, Levi Brown, Leonard Davis). While you prefer they hold down the LT spot for ten years, if they fail there they can still contribute as starters for their teams. This is in stark contrast to other positions; if Aaron Maybin fails at OLB, you won’t see him playing nose tackle the next week. From a talent standpoint, at worst, WORST, Andre Smith is a solid right tackle.
Now, of course, the problem with Andre is not his play, it’s his brain. Will he go off the grid with a fat contract? Will he pull a Barrett Robbins and skip off to the Dejope Casino for a weekend of drinking and hookers? That remains to be seen, but as one scout said, “The kid’s a great kid, he’s just very country”. That sounds like a Green Bay Packer to me.
10) San Francisco 49ers – Brian Orakpo, DE Texas
My former man-crush; O-sack-po is a monster of a pass rusher. I’m just concerned about his ability to be a standup linebacker who has to cover occasionally, too many questions to feel secure drafting him top ten.
11) Buffalo Bills – Everette Brown, DE Florida State
A little too short for a defensive end, but the dude can get after it. Can’t stop the run for shit, but he can get after it.
12) Denver Broncos – Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
Very safe pick, but not sure the value is there. If he’s truly a dynamic force who can stop the run and get to the passer from the 3-4 end spot then he’s worth it, but more likely he’ll just eat up blockers and you can find players later on who can do that.
13) Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, OT Ole Miss
The fourth tackle off the board, after Oher the tackle level drops off. I hear he has all the tools, just needs some further development to become a great OT. We’ll see if he gets that in Washington.
14) New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
Speed concerns have dropped him out of the top ten, but the guy will help whoever he ends up with. Unfortunately, his presence won’t be enough to overcome Darren Sharper’s errors.
15) Houston Texans – Clay Matthews, LB USC
He’s not very good.
16) San Diego Chargers – Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
Good pick.
17) New York Jets – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
I’m betting the Jets go in with Kellen Clemens as QB and are the frontrunners for the Sam Bradford derby (worst…derby…ever). Darius Heyward-Bey? I liked him better the first time - when he was called Troy Williamson.
18) Denver Broncos – Rey Maualuga, LB USC
The Broncos just keeping adding to that defense with this stud out of USC. My favorite of the USC linebackers, he’s at his best when he’s allowed to be disruptive. People wonder whether he’s a 3 down LB, and I think in the 3-4 he’ll be a beast of an inside linebacker. Great pickup for the Broncos.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman, QB Kansas State
Josh McCown and Byron Leftwich are just keeping the seat warm for Freeman. Although, given Byron’s girth, it’s more likely he’s keeping two seats warm.
20) Detroit Lions – Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss
I don’t know where I heard it, but whoever coined the nickname Peria “Fusilli” Jerry is a genius.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – Beanie Wells, RB Ohio State
Fact: NFL running backs statistically tail off at age 30.
Fact: Brian Westbrook turns 30 before the season starts.
Fact: Stressed is desserts spelled backwards
22) Minnesota Vikings – Eben Britton, OT Arizona
I’ve heard Percy Harvin here, but I don’t see it. They need an upgrade at tackle and Sidney Rice is a lot better than Childress thinks.
23) New England Patriots – Darius Butler, CB Connecticut
Patriots choose Butler over Vontae Davis in a bit of a shocker.
24) Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State
Some writer was discussing Pettigrew’s lack of top-flight speed and used Bubba Franks as an example of a guy who succeeded in spite of speed deficiencies. Uh oh, not the guy Brandon wants to be compared to.
25) Miami Dolphins – Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee
Where the hell did this guy come from?
26) Baltimore Ravens – Brian Cushing, LB USC
Well this’ll be awkward. Cushing waits patiently in the NYC Green Room on draft day all the way until #26. I have no idea why he’s going to be there, and if I were him I wouldn’t volunteer myself to be the sob story still waiting to be picked ala A. Rodgers and B. Quinn.
27) Indianapolis Colts – Ziggy Hood, DT Missouri
Ziggy, Ziggy, Ziggy can’t you see?
Sometime you’re workouts just hypnotize me
And I just love your DT ways
I guess that’s why they broke and you’re so paid (once you sign your rookie deal)
28) Buffalo Bills – William Beatty, OT Connecticut
Jason Peter’s replacement.
29) **Cleveland Browns – Aaron Maybin, OLB Penn State
While Maybin’s height is ideal (6’3”), his weight causes him to slide to the end of round one. He was able to explode past Big Ten tackles at about 225 pounds (L. Fitzgerald size) last season, but will he be the same athlete after adding an estimated 25-30 pounds this offseason? He’s a project; high in the draft he’s a risk, here he’s a good value pick.
30) Tennessee Titans – Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
Pair him with Cortland Finnegan and give it a shot. I don’t like Vontae, but I can’t decided if it is because I hate U. of Illinois, his brother, or his actual football ability. I’m guessing it’s a combination of the first two.
31) Arizona Cardinals – Donald Brown, RB Connecticut
Tim Hightower is good at scoring from five yards away, nothing else.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Mack, C California
Mackin’ on cupcakes.
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