AVOID

I've come to the realization that there are a lot of good players in this draft. I could convince myself to like almost any player Ted Thompson rolls the dice on.

Almost.

Here is a list of 5 players whose names have been linked to Green Bay's 23rd overall pick, all of whom would likely result in the flinging/shattering of objects if the Packers should draft them.

5. Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: Campbell will elicit the least sour reaction from me of the players on this list, if only because I'm hedging my bets and believe there's a decent chance that we'll end up with him. The definition of "workout warrior", Campbell will not be ready to start on the O-line for at least one season. He has great tools, and perhaps learning behind Clifton and Tauscher would be a perfect situation for him to flourish, but Packer fans should feel they are close enough to being a true contender that they need a viable rookie contributor with their first pick. Campbell does not fit the bill.

4. Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: He qualifies as a potential Packer pick by surpassing the Thompson 5'10" minimum for CBs, and does have first round value. Still, there are at least 5 corners I'd rather have (Haden, Wilson, McCourty, Owusu-Ansah, Jackson). Robinson does a terrible job of flipping his hips in coverage, and thus is liable to get burnt on double moves. He's athletic, but not physical, which does not bode well for the pressing/blitzing style Dom Capers likes. The cornerback position is also very deep in this draft, so taking one at 23 does not make much sense, when you can get an equal talent in the 2nd, and perhaps even 3rd, round.

3. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: Dwyer is a punishing, workhorse-style back. Ryan Grant is a punishing, workhorse-style back. You do not spend a first-round pick on a player when you have the better version of the same player on your roster.

2. Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillsdale: Fear the Veldheer. I've been nervous about this fit since the Senior Bowl. Veldheer worries me because Ted Thompson and the Packers scouting department have much bigger egos than any of us give them credit for. He represents my "Justin Harrell Memorial Reach Pick of the Draft"-- Thompson taking a guy he could easily get a round later, but making sure he grabs the prospect even if it costs him much more than the player's value. This isn't a knock against Veldheer, who shows potential on tape to anchor the blindside; it's more of a value concern.

1. Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: TT took an NT in the first round last year in BJ Raji (which Odrick is too small to play, anyways), and the Packers are relatively set at DE with Cullen Jenkins, oft-arrested Johnny Jolly, Raji, Jarius Wynn, and Justin Harrell (just kidding). Also, it's well-known that the DE spot is far and away the least important position in the 3-4. NO MEANS NO, TEDDY.

Target Practice

"The Packers need secondary help. Did you see their stats against even moderately capable QBs? AWFUL. Al Harris, Pat Lee, and Will Blackmon are coming off injury, and Jarrett Bush and Atari Bigby suck. Although..."

"...a consistent pass rush makes a back four much better. All we have is Clay Matthews and a cloud of dust coming off the edge. (And yes, that means you, Brad Jones) If we just get another edge rusher, we don't need to worry about bolstering our secondary, because QBs will have to rush their throws. Then again..."

"...if we can just keep Aaron Rodgers upright, the air attack has potential to be unstoppable, en route to simply outshooting our opponents and overcoming the defensive deficiencies. We need a quality LT to cover Rodgers' blindside so he can be confident enough to build on his accomplishments to date..."

"...which, by the way, have been awesome. Even with a turnstile-esque offensive line, Rodgers has been incredible. Forget protection, A-Rod is athletic enough to move around and avoid sacks when need be. The real answer is to add another weapon to the rushing/passing game."

"...Forget the draft, our roster is too young anyways. Fire Thompson for neglecting to sign any veterans, and fire McCarthy for having no feel for his team's rhythm."

All of the above theoretical quotes could easily be argued in conjunction with any given scenario in this draft. The point is, the Packers' approach should boil down to being a concept as simple as the one that my good friend, let's call him Cor Cor, joked with me about earlier today- "they should just draft players as good as Rodgers, Woodson, and Finley...get like four or five more guys like that...they'll be fine".

It's so true. Draft the guys you feel are best, they'll find their way into a playmaking role. So with 8 days left until the draft, here are the 8 (somewhat realistic) first round targets I feel are most likely to succeed if they don the Green and Gold, regardless of need.

(Players not under consideration under the assumption they'll be off the board: Bradford, Suh, McCoy, Okung, Berry, T. Williams, D. Williams, Morgan, Kindle, A. Davis, Bulaga, E. Thomas, Haden, Pierre-Paul, Clausen, Gresham)

8. Ricky Sapp, DE/OLB, Clemson: Once he recovered from a knee injury in time to participate fully at the combine, Sapp shone as the type of athlete that could fill out his frame and be a dominant player on Sundays. Possesses the motor sought in a 3-down DE, but the frame and ability to play outside linebacker.


7. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU: A quick, powerful, creative pass rusher with the brains and quickness to adjust to life as an OLB in the 3-4. Could have similar career trajectory to Clay Matthews.

6. Taylor Mays, S, USC: Although my infatuation with Mays knows no bounds, his work in coverage scares many scouts. The Packers already have enough defensive backs that get burnt deep by opposing receivers, and while Mays has transcendent straight-line speed for his size, he doesn't have the quick-twitch instincts and fluidity in the hips you look for to provide aerial support against modern-day multiple-receiver sets. Still, you can't ignore the spectacular physical presence he could bring to the table as the type of multi-talented, versatile safety Dom Capers covets.

5. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: Tate appears to be headed towards the latter stages of the first round and possibly even into the second, but there's little doubt that he'll be an impact WR in the NFL no matter where he goes. He is a very unique type of player, similar to Steve Smith in that he plays much bigger than his height suggests. Throw in Tate's Percy Harvin-like talents as a versatile backfield/slot/return threat, and you have a truly dangerous prospect.


4. Everson Griffen, DE/OLB, USC: Although he operated in a three-point stance throughout his time at USC, Griffen would be an excellent option opposite former teammate Matthews, squeezing the pocket and providing excellent run support with his extraordinary combination of size, speed, and strength for an edge rusher (6'4", 270, 4.65, 32 reps), and the athleticism to develop into an adequate cover LB in the 3-4.

3. Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: Taking a guard in the first round is about as sexy as Shelden Williams, but sexiness doesn't always imply success. Iupati is as sure a thing as you can get in this draft, with some even going so far as to say he's the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. I'm not one to argue.

2. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: The most explosive player in the 2010 draft, Spiller would be a perfect fit to spell Ryan Grant's bruising style. In the first year or two, he could easily play the role of Reggie Bush as a backfield/slot/return threat, and proved as a senior at Clemson that he could handle the responsibility of a full complement of carries if need be.

1. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: He's either going to be a colossal bust or an absolute freak; there is no middle ground. He has all sorts of red flags. I'm on record as saying I think he has no better than a coin flip's chance of fulfilling his monstrous potential. Still, I'm of the belief that if he becomes a Packer, there'd be almost no better situation for Dez to fluorish. Bryant would be surrounded by a coaching staff and veteran wide receiver corps that would bring out the most of his ability- the same ability that makes him a top-5 talent in this draft. In the interim, he'd be a superb red zone and return threat, and long term, he might couple with Jennings to form one of the most dangerous intermediate/deep threat tandems in the NFL.

(Honorable Mention: B. Graham, J. Best, D. Thomas, K. Wilson, C. Brown, S. Weatherspoon)

Senior Stock Watch

Although much NCAA postseason/NFL predraft attention has thus far been devoted to a certain Pro-Lifer and his questionable (at best) endeavors in the 2010 Senior Bowl, there was a great deal of prospect posturing taking place in the past 3 weeks that have laid the foundation for several draft boards. Scouting is a four-year process, and the East-West Shrine Game, Senior Bowl, and Texas vs. the Nation Game afford the players a concluding statement on their respective collegiate cases, at least in practice and game situations. So who shat the bed, and who gave it the ol' LeBatard Try?

BAM!

(Stock Up)

OLB Brandon Graham (Michigan) - Instincts, motor more than compensate for size deficiency. Had his way throughout week of practice, and then won Senior Bowl's MVP. Played way into first round.

CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State) - At a position loaded with underclassmen declarations, Wilson's finesse and athleticism stood out at the Senior Bowl. Should be late-first/early-second round pick, and established himself as the de facto top senior corner.

S Myron Rolle (Florida State) - Huge week; showed up in great shape and played extremely well. Second round pick at best.

RB/WR Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss) - Diminuitive dynamo led water cooler talk at Senior Bowl with explosive week of practice. May have put himself into conversation for a late-first/early-second round pick.


Those Boogerface locks would fit mighty well in GB

OT Rodger Saffold (Indiana) - Great athleticism; displayed mean streak not seen at Indiana throughout season. May be a second-third round pick with upside.

S Kam Chancellor (Virginia Tech) - Chancellor put concerns about fitting in at safety to rest with a strong Shrine Bowl week, displaying abilities in coverage as well as solid instincts. Versatility to play other positions (CB, LB) will end up being a positive rather than a negative as the draft process wears on. Get acquainted with future Aaron Rouse.

Others: OG Mike Iupati, CB Chris Cook, DE Alex Carrington, OG John Jerry, DT Torell Troup, QB Dan LeFevour, RB Andre Dixon, CB Perrish Cox, WR Jacoby Ford, WR Freddie Barnes, S Nate Allen, QB Jonathan Crompton, QB Ryan Perilloux, WR Trindon Holliday, LB Simoni Lawrence, TE Jimmy Graham


Oops!

(Stock Down)

DT Terrence Cody (Alabama) - Cody started his Senior Bowl week by showing up extremely out of shape at the weigh-in. He eats up blockers, but looked sloppy and undisciplined, particularly next to Dan Williams, who had a very solid week for the South team.

S Taylor Mays (USC) - Continued to display all the straight-line speed and physical "wow" factor expected, but was disappointment in coverage. Questions will surround Mays until he proves his game translates on the field. Probably mid-to-late first round pick at this point. #1 in my heart.


"Are you not entertained? Is that not why you are here?"

CB Trevard Lindley (Kentucky) - Came into this season as a top CB prospect with excellent size and production, but heads to the NFL as a huge question mark with lack of physicality and underwhelming athleticism.

OT Selvish Capers (Virginia) - Inconsistent and raw; does not merit trust to play LT for several years. A Packer fan's nightmare. Probable second-rounder.

CB Patrick Robinson (Florida State) - Wasn't exceptionally poor, but for a player who came into the draft process as the likely #1 senior CB, seemed to drop behind at least 3 at the Senior Bowl (K. Wilson, P. Cox, C. Cook).

QB Tim Tebow (Florida) - For those expecting a complete mechanical overhaul, Tebow was a disappointment. Questionable accuracy and timing when taking snaps under center may have been expected, but did nothing to assuage concerns about his ability to play QB in the NFL. Likely played himself into second or third round consideration. Still, "it only takes one."

Others: CB Jerome Murphy, DT Jeff Owens, OL Chris Scott, any OL from Notre Dame, WR Danario Alexander

"Fore" Needs a Getaway

Ol' Brittfarr: Gun slinging. Being a kid out there. Wranglers. Sears. Southwest?

My first attempt at the world of video nerding. Inspired by Page1...this one's for YOUUUUUUUUU (Pat Bowlen voice).

Packers 2010 NFL Draft Wish List

Things to keep in mind…

-Provided below each description is the player whose roster spot will be taken by the incoming draftee.

-This is a very preliminary list as we’re only in mid-January. I’d say half of a prospect’s draft stock is made up of in-season performance, with the other half post-season all-star games and workouts. It’s an extremely fluid process, which makes it fun to look back come April and laugh about the fact I had Javier Arenas going 3 rounds earlier than he did.

-I don’t know 80% of the players pegged to go beyond 3^rd round, so I picked the few guys I’ve heard of, or just Google-imaged them to see if they had the look of a good football player (Barry Church).

Rd. 1: Bryan Bulaga – OT, University of Iowa

Everything about this pick feels so obvious that I feel like it cannot actually happen. If Bulaga is available at #23 – many peg him a mid-20’s prospect – the Packers will take him because everything about him fits in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher will be brought back on one-year deals, allowing Bulaga to gain experience as a back-up (chances either Clifton or Tauscher miss time is ~100%) and not have to be thrust in immediately to protect the blindside of a 26 year-old franchise QB. The hope then would be that the boy from Crystal Lake, IL will step into the starting left tackle role beginning in the 2011 season and continuing for a decade.

Round hole meets round peg

At the expense of: Breno Giacomini. The project is over, and you’ve failed.

Rd. 2: Javier Arenas – CB, University of Alabama

What makes Arenas so attractive at this spot is his ability to immediately fill two gigantic holes in the Packers’ roster that were exposed in Arizona: secondary depth and competent return man. Assuming Al Harris is back as starter or #3 corner, Arenas can immediately take the position of #4 CB away from whatever trash the Packers have floating around back there. The hope is he ascends the CB depth chart, but his primary focus right away will be on special teams. He will take both kick-off and punt returns away from ACL-less Will Blackmon and ensure that Jordy Nelson will never, and I mean EVER, have to return another kick again.

For our sake, let's hope he's not related to Gilbert

At the expense of: Trevor Ford or Josh Bell or one of their other infinitely replaceable defensive backs.

Rd. 3: O’Brien Schofield – OLB, University of Wisconsin

An obvious homer pick here, but truth be told this O’Brien fellow can play a little football. At this stage, Round 3 seems likely for Schofield, although if he gives the scouts a display of that elite athleticism many believe he has, watch out for him to jump up a round. He was successful as a DE for the Badgers, but one look at him tells you the Flying Spaghetti Monster put him on this Earth to rush the passer as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Packers will be very lucky if he’s available this late.

As you all know, I’m the driver of the Brad Jones bandwagon, and I still believe my Braddy will only get better as a pro, but no GM would go into a season without giving a 2^nd year, 7^th rounder some heavy competition. This is all under the assumption that we’ve seen the last of Aaron Kampman in Green Bay. I’ve always admired Kampman for the way he played, but from a football perspective it benefits both the Packers and Kampman to go their separate ways.

Usually don't resort to this type of language, but this picture makes me think one thing - fEsTiVaL!!!!

At the expense of: Jeremy Thompson. It looks as though J. Thompson will be forced into retirement – either because of the serious neck injury sustained in December or his total lack of football skills.

Rd. 4: Dexter McCluster – RB/WR, University of Mississippi

Is Dexter McCluster a NFL running back, wide receiver, or neither? I don’t have the answer to that, but what I can tell you is he is exactly the type of home-run hitter that Packer fans crave. We have a very explosive offense without any truly explosive players, and the addition of McCluster’s sub 4.4 speed for select plays might bring some added pop to their already potent line-up (baseball terminology!). End-around here, bubble screen there, nothing major, just enough to add a dimension the offense severely lacks – speed. Unlike Spiller, Best and McKnight – who will all be long gone by this point - McClusterfuck has zero chance to ever assume the role as starting RB, but adding this type of weapon in round 4 is still solid value.

Too crazy for Boys-Town, too much of a boy for Crazy-Town

At the expense of: Ahman Green. Love you to death, Ahman, but we both know it’s time. Congratulations on the All-Time Packer rushing record.

Rd. 5: Barry Church – S, University of Toledo

The Packers are extremely thin at safety, with literally nothing behind Collins and Bigby (although Bigby can be considered nothing as well). Not that Barry Church will save the day, but adding depth here is a must. Plus, after any big Barry Church play, we can all scream “Let’s take ‘em to Church” or some variation thereof.

Already getting excited about his inevitable nickname, Barry "non-denominational" Church

At the expense of: Matt Giordano. Good riddance.

Rd. 6: Zoltan Mesko – P, University of Michigan

Will they use a 6^th round pick on a punter? Probably not. Do I really want to sift through names to find the small-school offensive guard that Thompson will end up taking here? Definitely not.

Kiss it baby, yeaaaaahhhhhh

At the expense of: Jeremy Kapinos. Didn’t really secure a roster spot by rating last in most of the important punting statistics.

Rd. 7: Anonymous 300+ pound man – DE, University of ____________

This is the traditional “In Case Johnny Jolly Goes to Jail” draft pick. What would a Packer draft be without it?

I heard this guy has some free time on his hands

At the expense of: Korey Hall. John Kuhn lives to fight another day.

Post-Mortem

Well, that was brutal. Although the wounds are still fresh, let's try to make lemonade out of Sunday's lemon-

In Our Front Pocket (Positives)



-25.70: The average age of a Green Bay Packers player going into this season, making them the youngest team in the NFL. (and most inexperienced, at a clip of 3.81 average years) This is the fourth consecutive year the Packers have held these two distinctions. Pending Thompson's personnel decisions (Kampman, Pickett, Clifton, Tauscher, Colledge), next year could be another step back. Although the nucleus is promising (Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Finley, Matthews, Collins, Jenkins, Williams are all just entering or currently in their respective primes), can a team be expected to grow if they continue to get younger? I'm skeptical to say the least.

-Aaron Rodgers, Resident Festival: Not much needs to be said about Rodgers' performance this year. He set the franchise mark for passing yards, displayed versatility in leading QBs in rushing, played in two of the most highly-anticipated regular season games in NFL history, bucked the "anti-clutch" label by cobbling together several stirring late-game comebacks, made the playoffs, and cemented himself as the leader of the franchise, all while playing behind a sieve of an offensive line that threatened to send him the way of Joe Theismann. In his second year. We're in good hands.

-Leadership: While I'll admit to having previously led the anti-McCarthy/Thompson bandwagons, both have done an admirable job in the past year. Thompson and his scouting team expertly fitted last year's draft to Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme, getting excellent value in trading back into the first round for Pro Bowl OLB Clay Matthews and grabbing a key piece to the defensive puzzle with NT BJ Raji. Teddy also merits high marks for signing back veteran Mark Tauscher in the regular season to salvage the offensive line, and re-upping with half-Desi Brandon Chillar on the cheap. With a deep draft on the horizon and a better idea of the kind of defensive pawns the Packers have to work with, there's no reason to believe Thompson won't be able to continue building the team he ultimately envisions McCarthy leading- a championship one. From a coaching perspective, as McCarthy began to increasingly trust Rodgers with run-pass options from the line as the season wore on, the Packers had much more of a pulse. With Tom Clements returning to continue Rodgers' evolution from in-the-closet puss-arm to gigantic wang-wielding dong-thruster, and Capers back to continue the 3-4 project, Green Bay has the right people at the top.

-NFC North: As of today, it's very possible Minnesota will run the table and win the NFC. Still, the Vikings have a ton of question marks. Will Four be back? And if not, how will that affect one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL (Rice, Shiancoe, et al)? Is Bryant McKinnie's Barbre-esque blocking in the latter quarter of the season a permanent concern? What's the status of Percy Harvin's chronic migraines? How effective will EJ Henderson be manning the inside next year coming off reconstructive knee surgery? Minnesota could very well be in line for a drop-off. Chicago has no draft picks this year to supplement Jay Cutler. It's tough to imagine a new offensive coordinator (who would be the Bears' third choice, or worse), defensive coordinator, plus the return of Brian Urlacher equaling the four- or five-game improvement likely to be required to win the division next year. (Of course, I said the same thing about the Packers after last year) Long term, Detroit could be dangerous several years down the road with the Stafford-to-Megatron connection, but right now they have more holes to fill than a Murn-Lawn-Drunk Whoooore threesome. Green Bay should go into next season as a consensus favorite to reclaim their playoff spot, and at least challenge Minnesota for the division title.

Shopping List!



-Offensive Tackle: Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton valiantly anchored the edges on James Campen's bend-but-don't-break line, but with both turning 33 before next season's onset, there's little doubt that in order to preserve the health of their franchise quarterback, Thompson's biggest offseason need is to make an immediate impact in free agency or early in the draft to supplement or supplant the aging duo. TJ Lang showed flashes, and Breno Giacomini has been a project forever, but it's time to give Rodgers the protection he needs to realize his potential as an elite QB in the NFL.

-Strong Safety:

My, oh my, does Atari Bigby suck. Not enough is made of the problems the Packers had from their deep coverage personnel. An instinctive, heady safety with speed to compensate when Green Bay's physical corners are beat would do wonders as a complement to Nick Collins' hard-nosed, ballhawking style.

-Pass Rush: Too often, Dom Capers had to dial up complex blitz packages to overcome the fact that Green Bay's only pure pass rush threat is Clay Matthews. Nick Barnett was nothing short of heroic this year, but he isn't getting any younger in the middle, and who knows how his battle-ravaged body will hold up in 2010. AJ Hawk progressed, to only slightly below average, but is still a colossal liability in coverage and is slow as molasses. Brandon Chillar is solid in coverage but lacks consistency and athleticism in the run game and as a pass rush threat. Brad Jones is raw and may be too slight of frame to ever be enough of a threat to start in the NFL. Aaron Kampman effectively whined his way out of town. In order to give Capers the flexibility necessary to truly maximize the effectiveness of the 3-4, the Packers must make a front-five pass rusher a priority this offseason.

-Cornerback: Al Harris, Pat Lee and Will Blackmon will all (presumably) return from injury by training camp, but the latter two have proven nothing in terms of legitimacy to be a starting corner in the future. Lee was drafted to contribute from Day One, but has never played a meaningful snap, while Blackmon has the athleticism to star but has not taken advantage of his limited opportunities. Harris and Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson will likely start next year, with Tramon Williams serving as an adequate, but not shutdown, corner to step in if necessary. Thompson and Co. need to have an eye to both the immediate and long-term future- a playmaking corner with the ability to return kicks, and potentially serve in the dime in the upcoming season, should be atop the Packers' draft needs list.

-Playmaker: Ryan Grant somehow flipped the switch from lackadaisical plodder to explosive cog in the season's final few games. Still, it'd be nice to get a versatile RB/WR/return man that adds a big play dimension to Green Bay's offense and cellar-dwelling special teams, perhaps in the mold of a Dexter McCluster, Jahvid Best, Noel Devine, or Golden Tate.

Takeaways - Pittsburgh v. Green Bay

Usually a thrilling, last-second 37-36 road defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champions is filed under the "Good Loss" column. However, in this case, it brings to light three huge concerns that, either singularly or in combination, will likely preclude the Packers from making a serious championship run this season. At the same time, there are a few potential blips that may not correspond to the rest of the season for Green Bay. Here's a look at both-

3 Causes for Concern

1. Secondary Depth

When Al Harris' knee blew out against San Francisco a few weeks ago, the immediate concern was not whether or not Tramon Williams could replace him (debatable thus far), but how the Packers would cope with career special teamer and pass coverage doormat Jarrett Bush playing a prominent role in nickel defense. In the past few weeks, Dom Capers has done a masterful job of hiding Bush, only allowing him to get burnt a few times, and blitzing frequently. Eventually, though, someone was going to victimize him, and Big Ben was all too happy to oblige, ripping Bush apart time after time as the Steelers completely abandoned the run. Recently-acquired Josh Bell, in limited action, was the victim of Roethlisberger's perfect final pass, in addition to an illegal contact penalty on the final drive, but I'd still trust him over Bush at this point.

2. Mason Crosby

It's tough to give up on a guy when there's nothing else out there in the way of capable replacements, but missing inside 40 yards is simply unacceptable. And when you do it in several consecutive games...

Any terrible kicker on the NFL fringe should still be able to hit those. If he blows one more within his range, you have to assume the Packers will at least try out some other kickers. I love Crosby's talent, but at some point, as with any other position, you have to ask yourself- when do we stop trusting a talented player who isn't getting the job done?

3. Coaching

Once again, throughout the first half, McCarthy displayed a terrible sense of offensive rhythm, settling for a FG (which Crosby promptly shanked) in a potential touchdown situation, going 3-and-out three times, and bungling clock management on the last drive of the half, which could have resulted in another FG (which would have been missed by Crosby). I do give McCarthy credit for righting the ship and giving up on the run when it clearly wasn't working. Watching Rodgers spread the ball around to every one of his WRs in big spots (JMF, Jordy, Jones all had big catches) was promising, and keeping opposing defenses honest will keep the Packers in any game in the next few games and (hopefully) the postseason. However, on the other side of the ball, for the first time, I was seriously concerned about Dom Capers' in-game adjustments. Dropping Hawk in nickel until the end of the game was a huge mistake. Not bringing any pressure (Jarius Wynn and Brady Poppinga were pass-rushing on the last play), consequently putting Bush in a position where he could continue to get destroyed, was destined for failure. Not bringing any delayed blitzes against a QB who is notorious for squirming out of arm tackles- bad oversight. Obviously the players put themselves in the position they were left in- Chillar had his worst game in coverage I can remember, Bush and Hawk were awful, Bell was out of position on the last pass, Bigby seems to be a liability as over-the-top help - but it's the defensive coordinator's job to cover up his team's weaknesses. For one week, Capers did the opposite, and I'm not sure how he'll be able to cover it up in the future.

There may be a few reasons to believe this one game may have been what McCarthy calls it- simply an outlier on what has been an excellent "14-game body of work".

3 Reasons for Hope

1. Roethlisberger's Elusiveness

Look at the contending QBs in the NFC and compare them to why Roethlisberger was so successful, and you may come to a more optimistic conclusion (if such a thing exists) that the 503 yard clinic Big Ben put on was more of an exception than what we can expect. Obviously, a certain #4 doesn't take many sacks for the Vikes, but, as Packer fans are all too aware, his elusiveness is of a different kind than Roethlisberger's- he'll throw the crippling risky pass in avoidance. Kurt Warner is a statue and will rush into passes or take sacks in the face of Capers' blitz-happy scheme. We already saw what Tony Romo and the longer routes the Cowboys like to run managed against the Packers. Drew Brees would dominate with the short passing game, but no one expects Green Bay to go to the KatrinaDome and beat the Saints. Donovan McNabb is the wild card-- he's nowhere near the runner he once was, but can't you just imagine Pass-DMC eluding Cullen Jenkins, stepping up, and finding DeSean Jackson running free on blown Bigby coverage at least twice in any playoff game? I really hope we don't play Philly.

2. Drops

You'd like to think the uncharacteristic amount of drops in the past few games by Driver and Jennings are more of an anomaly than what will happen going forward. As I mentioned earlier, it's good to see them spreading the ball around though. Jennings' big game could have a huge impact on the team's chances of making, and winning in, the playoffs.

3. 3-4

Pittsburgh gets to practice against a 3-4 every day. I'm guessing this played some role in how comfortable Roethlisberger looked, even in the face of a variety of coverage and blitz looks.

In the end, it doesn't matter. If we don't go undefeated to end the season, NYG or DAL has to lose a game. If the 'Boys don't lose to Philly this week, we're really fucked. So...don't read this post, because we're losing to ARI. Shit!

Properly Evaluating Decisions

Commentators of all types have spent the week calling shenanigans on Bill Belichick for his decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. The SG finally weighed in today. To put it mildly, he was not a fan of the decision.

The gist of the Simmons column is this- Stats are fine, but you have to use your eyes. Watch the game! And when the two don’t match up, the stats can't be trusted. I don't really fault Simmons for saying this sort of thing. It's how most people think. Here's an example of his thought process:

“In the biggest game of the regular season, when a football coach tries something that -- and this is coming from someone who watches 12 hours of football every Sunday dating back to elementary school -- I cannot remember another team doing on the road in the last three minutes of a close game, that's not ‘gutsy.’ It's not a ‘gamble.’ It's not ‘believing we can get that two yards.’ It's not ‘revolutionary.’ It's not ‘statistically smart.’ It's reckless. It's something that should happen only in video games, and only when you and your roommate are both high.”

I happen to think that’s a poorly reasoned paragraph. But I would bet that Bill Belichick wants every single coach and player the Pats play to think in that same way. He’s a great coach precisely because Belichick isn’t afraid to take the heat. Remember when he called for an intentional safety? I bet that if they had lost that game, he’d be getting the same reaction as he is now. That time it worked, and he’s a genius. This time it didn’t, and he’s a complete moron. But none of that matters to him. All he cares about is winning. Joe Posnanski made this point better than I ever could. The reason he wants people to think like Simmons is that he can exploit it and put to his advantage. He knows that decisions cannot be evaluated by the result, only by the expected result at the time the decision was made.

The problem with the anti-Belichick arguments is that they're on the fact that the attempt failed. Had the attempt succeeded, Belichick would be hailed yet again as a genius. Decisions, even in sports, have to be evaluated based on the circumstances the decision maker faced at that moment in time. Belichick knew that going for it gave the Patriots the best chance of winning.

(If you want to bring in the non-probability factors, he had, as recently as the 2006 playoffs, lost a late lead to the Colts by giving Peyton Manning a chance to win the game. In this game, the Colts were rallying and the Pats D was worn down. Lastly, the “not trusting the defense” argument fails because it’s equally arguable that he was saying- “look, defense, we’re going to go for it because it maximizes our chance to win, but if it fails it’s all up to you guys.” But none if this is the point.)

The point is that it was the right decision at the time, and Belichick was not afraid to make it. Most coaches wouldn't have the balls (see below).

Pats fans should be thankful to have a coach like that at the helm.

____

It could be the case that the Sports Guy (and those like him) just don't understand probabilities. Look at the analogy he chose-

'But by Monday night, based on various columns and message boards (as well as e-mails to my reader mailbox), you would have thought Belichick was a genius for blowing the game. He played the percentages! It wasn't as crazy as it looked! By this logic, Belichick also should have held a loaded pistol to his head on the sideline, spun the chamber and tried to shoot himself like Chris Walken in "The Deer Hunter." If those 1-in-6 odds came through and he succeeded, we could have said, "Hey, he played the percentages: 83.6666 percent of the time, you don't die in that situation! You can't blame him for what happened!'

The analogy fails horribly because “the percentages” in the Deer Hunter case are-

Choice 1- Walken doesn’t put the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 0%.

Choice 2- Walken puts the gun to his head. Chance of dying- 16.67%.

It’s obvious which choice is “playing the percentages.” (Also, does the SG have editors? 5/6 is 83.33%.)

In Belichick’s case

Go for it- Win Probability: 79%

Punt- Win Probability: 70%.

(Numbers taken from Advanced NFL Stats.)

Going for it is playing the percentages.
_____


(further reading- Stevin Levitt @ Freaknomics. Coaches and the principle-agent problem. TMQ makes this point often, too.)

c/p @ http://madisonthree.blogspot.com/

Savior

TWENTY!!!!!

TWENTY mother fucking sacks.

Twenty mother fucking sacks, two fumbles, and two safeties. In four games. With a relatively mobile quarterback.

Luckily, our prayers have been answered.



LET'S ROCK

FIX IT!

Win or lose, every week our team will make mistakes. It will be my goal at the conclusion of each game to identify the weakest link and attempt to remedy the situation. How will I cure our biggest problems? Simple, I’ll FIX IT!

For those unfamiliar with how to fix something, let me lay out the process. Or, if you don’t fancy yourself a reader, refer to the video below.

Step One: FIX!

Step Two: IT!

Step Three: FIX IT!

Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9/20)

Public Enemy #1: The Offensive Line

What the fuck happened here? I’m baffled. I don’t remember complaining about them much last year, and it was pretty much the same dudes. We kept our left side in tact and replaced an aging, ACL-less staple (I still love you, Tauscher) with a younger, meaner and more athletic RT in Allen Barbre. Everything we heard out of camp was that the line should actually be noticeably improved with the C/RG combination of Spitz/Sitton as opposed to Wells/Spitz. Improved? Shit no. An offensive line that can’t protect the passer OR open up holes in the running game isn’t much of an offensive line at all.

After two games, all signs point to our offensive line being completely fucked. With Chad Clifton expected to miss time we are forced to move our left guard Daryn Colledge out to left tackle. DC is a hell of a LG, but, unfortunately, left tackle is a different ball game. I shouldn’t have to spell out how important a left tackle is to a football team (Michael Lewis does that in his book “The Blind Side” – I recommend it), but suffice it to say there is a reason we see LTs taken top ten in the draft year after year. To make matters worse, the offensive line was given help on a staggering 80% of plays (according to @tompelissero), which makes it impossible to spread out and use what many consider the best four-deep receiving corps in football. If you were an opposing defense, wouldn’t you rather see Lee, Kuhn and Grant in as blockers opposed to Jones, Jordy and Jermichael split out?

With all this doom-and-gloom surrounding our OLine, what can be done to get it turned around? Call me crazy, but I honestly think the best approach to take with this group is patience. Don’t sign desperation free agents, don’t panic and become an ultra-conservative offense, simply give them time because I believe it will get worked out. Not to say they’ll be amazing, but I believe they can return to being a perfectly adequate pass-protection unit. Give them time to work out the kinks and let’s hope this young, talented unit can gel together. I’m obviously biased toward DC because he is clearly the most likeable guy on the team, but I think he’ll be an able fill-in at LT, and possibly the long-term solution at that position – although I’m not going to hold my breath on the latter.

As far as the running game goes, I don't think the combination of this line and these RBs will ever produce an above-average rushing attack. Hopefully we can produce just enough on the ground to keep defenses honest and attain some semblance of offensive balance.

It’s fitting that Pagel’s first FIX IT! solution simply requires being lazy; just sit around and wait for them to play better.

Predicted problem for next week vs. St. Louis: Ryan Grant.

It actually might be a banner week for Ryan. I’m going to go on record and predict he will break his first career tackle this week against the Rams. You can do it, Ryan!